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Prediction Market - The Concept

Prediction markets is a method for predicting the probability of events, and earning real or virtual money off accurate predictions. In the business world, organizations use this method to enable stakeholders to predict business related events. For example: success rate of future products and concepts, sales forecasts, estimated time for meeting projects deadlines, etc.

The idea behind prediction markets is that the accumulation of informed opinions will be more accurate than the best estimate of any executive or expert. This method simulates a stock exchange mechanism, in a way that rewards accurate predictions through wins and punishes inaccurate predictions through losses. This ideation management method has proven to be an efficient and cost effective way for organizations to aggregate opinions of employees, customers, distributors, partners or any other stakeholders about the outcome of future business events.

The idea behind prediction markets is that the accumulation of informed opinions will be more accurate than the best estimate of any executive or expert.

How Does Qmarkets Prediction Markets Software Work?

Qmarkets offers a robust software for running and managing prediction markets programs online. The process can include any number of people with applicable knowledge about the topic you want to forecast. At the beginning of the session you present your participants with a list of questions and grant each user with a certain amount of virtual money.

During the time you run the prediction markets program, every question performs like a stock in a virtual market. The participants are invited to make a prediction about the future result, and decide how much of their virtual money they would like to invest on this prediction.

The participants are exposed to the overall dynamics of this special market, so they can login to the Qmarkets platform at any time and see how much money was invested for and against each question, or more exactly – they can follow up on the current market “price”, which is calculated by the Qmarkets system. This market price provides eventually the probability for the event to occur.

This behavior creates a unique dynamics, encouraging participants to take part and “place their bets” on the future results. The participants’ natural desire to win, encourages them to take the time and think about the question and make predictions that they believe will eventually occur.

Prediction Markets

Qmarkets Prediction Markets Use Cases

  • Market research 
    Market research professionals and agencies worldwide are leveraging the power of our prediction markets software to improve the quality and diversity of services they can offer their clients. Qmarkets prediction markets offer a unique combination of quantitive and qualitative research for dozens of industries and uses.
  • Multi products/concepts evaluation 
    One of the key strengths of prediction markets is its ability to perform a real comparison of any number of new concepts or products, and identify the one with the best potential to succeed. The main benefit is the ability to avoid the pitfalls of classic monadic test approach, and offer participants an intelligent way to compare all the concepts against each other.
  • Sales forecasts
    Our software will allow you to better utilize the collective wisdom in your organization, and allow an open but organized process, that will lead to the most accurate sales forecast, using the knowledge of your employee, customers, partners, franchise, consultants, etc
  • Risk management 
    Improve your ability to manage your large scale projects, relying on the knowledge and information held by your employees. You can use Qmarkets Prediction Markets to forecast timeframes and milestones of projects while detecting the quality related issues (faults, bugs, etc) and identify problems and risks before it is too late.

Qmarkets Prediction Markets Advantages

  • Improved decision-making
  • Increase participants’ engagement
  • Multiple use cases
  • Wide reach – Supports any number of users – from hundreds to 100,000 users
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